Global Horizontal Irradiance in West Africa: Evaluation of the WRF-Solar Model in Convection-Permitting Mode with Ground Measurements

Abstract The number of solar power plants has increased in West Africa recent years. Reliable reanalysis data and short-term forecasting irradiance from numerical weather prediction models could provide an economic advantage for the planning operation plants, especially data-poor regions such as Africa. This study presents a detailed assessment different shortwave (SW) radiation schemes Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) Model option Solar (WRF-Solar), with appropriate configurations atmospheric conditions Ghana southern part Burkina Faso. We applied two 1-way nested domains (D1 = 15 km D2 3 km) to investigate four SW schemes, namely, Community Atmosphere Model, Dudhia, RRTMG, Goddard, RRTMG without aerosol inputs (RRTMG_AERO). simulation results were validated using hourly measurements automatic stations established region show that RRTMG_AERO_D01 generally outperforms other simulate global horizontal under all-sky condition [RMSE 235 W m −2 (19%); MAE 172 (14%)] also cloudy skies. Moreover, shows best performance on seasonal scale. Both RRTMG_AERO Dudhia experiments indicate good clear However, sensitivity WRF-Solar model suggests gives better results. Therefore, it is recommended be used forecasts over